It seems to me that most of the analysis of Jon Huntsman's candidacy for the GOP nomination for president miss the main point. Of course he's the most sane candidate. That's been apparent for a long time. And sure, it's a shame, in a huge way, that the current GOP cannot rally behind that relative sanity.
But I think the reality is that, for opposite reasons, the "sane" Republicans and Huntsman, on one side, and the fringe right that is no longer the fringe of the GOP, on the other, each realize that this is not a candidate that can run against President Obama in 2012. For the Tea Party and Christianist core of the party, he doesn't represent their vision (or at least their
style, since his actual policy views are much more conservative and orthodox and in line with their right-wing views than is generally acknowledged). But on the sane(r) side of the party, there must be a recognition that Huntsman really doesn't
want to run against Barack Obama. He worked for Barack Obama. There is an apparent level of respect for the president in Huntsman that is entirely lacking in the remainder of the field. Despite the heartfelt desire of people like Andrew Sullivan (during those rare moments when he's not all warm and tingly for Ron Paul and insincerely rescinding his infamous endorsement) for a general campaign that functions at a high level of decency, that focuses on issues and not personal attacks - that represents the type of campaign they once pretended that John McCain would run - partisans still expect there to be passion, fire, and commitment to their cause.
That points to the one constituency that really wants Jon Huntsman to strongly challenge for the GOP nomination: the media. The media is still trying to sell something, and the only GOP primary script that they know is the McCain one from last time around. They need a "maverick" so badly, someone they can pretend is willing to stand up to the radicals, and are so desperate for Huntsman that it's almost dirty. "Huntsman's Time Finally Arrives!" And that sort of passion could - but probably won't be enough to - propel Jon Huntsman forward.
It's just that it's not Jon Huntsman's passion.
For all Huntsman's qualities, whatever those qualities are (besides sounding reasonable), Huntsman doesn't appear to have that sort of fight in him that the Republicans expect of someone taking on Barack Obama in the general election. The fact that Huntsman cannot channel that passion and anger is indicative of a candidate who isn't really serious about running in 2012. He's a candidate for 2016. He knows it. He doesn't want to run against President Obama. He's running as the dignified man who can save his party in 2016. That's what this candidacy is all about.
Even having said all of that, maybe a dignified party (just suspend your disbelief - these are Republicans after all) would still select Jon Huntsman as their standard bearer. The media may, after all, convince the public that he's the real deal, the Anti-Romney other-Romney. But the people they're going to sell that to aren't the hard-core GOP-icans, and the independents aren't going to carry the day everywhere, or really almost anywhere, particularly when Huntsman has to share them with Ron Paul.
Then there's that problem of loyalty, an issue that would be hammered at from several directions if Huntsman emerged as a real force in this campaign. The Manchurian Candidate stuff that's being said about him now would become fevered if he were a real threat. Who's team is the guy on? (No, I don't buy into that nonsense, I'm just pointing out what I would expect to see.) America's? China's?
Remember, the loyalty that matters isn't loyalty to the country. It's loyalty to the cause. Huntsman can argue that he served President Obama's administration out of loyalty to America. That's all good and well, but it's not how the GOP base must see Jon Huntsman. He served Obama. New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg got the message when he pulled out of heading the Department of Commerce (and then had to forcefully reassert his conservative bona fides to prove is continuing loyalty to the cause). Huntsman didn't get the message. Instead, he worked to advance President Obama's agenda. In China.
And what does Huntsman's candidacy say about his loyalty to Obama? If Huntsman is a real candidate, Huntsman is pretty much betraying the President, too, right?
What does any of that say of the character of this man, pleasant demeanor notwithstanding. Or pleasant demeanor withstanding. Because Huntsman's approach and personality is much too Obama-like for the party hardcore. And they know, so deeply, that the President's demeanor is just an cover for his devilish schemes to destroy America. Why would they want a candidate that is so Obama-like. Elections are about contrasts. It's the firebrand that cares. And that's not Huntsman.
Huntsman knows it too. He's not a candidate for 2012. (And he'll never be mine.) But he wants the GOP to remember what they could have had when the 2016 campaign gets underway.
