You're the king today but there's a price you may pay

People seem to think the reason Mitt Romney is so secretive about his tax returns is that they will reveal that he pays an effective tax rate around 15%, because Mitt Romney said that his tax rate was probably close to 15%.

Since when has Mitt Romney been known to be honest. No, really. Is he believable in anything he says? Doesn't he just say whatever he thinks he can get away with?

I think the odds are that, when you take into account his numerous tax shelters, off-shore accounts, estate planning and other mechanisms available only to the mega-wealthy, people with suddenly discover that the problem isn't that he pays an effective rate of 15%. It will be that he has historically paid (as opposed to however he rejiggers his 2011 taxes - and tries to get away with only releasing those) an effective rate well below that. That will be the damning information.

Mitt Romney seems to be achieving something remarkable. He's turning Fox-watching Tea Party Republicans into populists. If he loses the election, his arrogance will have created an opening for tax reform that doesn't advantage capital gains and eliminates tax shelters for the wealthy. Why do you need ultra-low tax rates to incentivize private equity investments that are used to destroy jobs, the meme will go, but significantly higher tax rates on labor are not considered a disincentive to working and growing the overall economy? The argument never made any sense. And Mitt Romney is making it toxic.

Good job, Mittens.

UPDATE: Krugman makes the case that low capital gains tax rates are bad economics. Mitt is creating a class of Republicans, led by Newt Gingrich, who (at least today - until they get to turn around and recast those views as socialist), who agree with Paul Krugman. Again, it's remarkable.