A long, long way from anywhere real safe

We don't really know much behind the facts of what is currently going on in Iran, although it appears to be pretty likely that the election was stolen by Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. But regardless of whether this was effectively a coup by the current rulers of Iran against its own citizens, or a complete misreading by us about what actually happened, I have learned (or relearned, or finally had my instincts confirmed about) a few critical things.

First, our major cable news media outlets are fundamentally incompetent. When I logged on to the computer this afternoon to see the latest, I was stunned, excited, concerned, confused, and a few hundred other emotions, based on the developments being reported on certain blogs. Trying to get real-time information, I turned on the television, first CNN, then MSNBC. Nothing, nada, zip, zilch, diddly-squat, bupkis.

Second, the existing regime in Iran is deeply corrupt and rotten. Not much more need be said.

And third, a substantial portion of Iranians want change and some form of honest rule, some commitment to democratic principles, in their country, and are making the first efforts at revolution.

The American Right are convinced that the events of these last couple of days in Iran portend danger, a hardening of an already dangerous regime which has crossed the line so far that action against it is essential by the U.S. or by Israel - one as the proxy for the other, but it is equally unclear who is in which role. (I recognize that this is a gracious explanation for the Right's distress at the current events in Iran, and their interest in a win by Ahmadinejad, which appears in no small part to be motivated by a desire to have that goon be the face of Iran, rather than an apparent moderate President, in order to keep up the pressure for an attack on Iran, which the neocons view as dangerous no matter who is in charge - which may or may not be true.)

It seems to me that this is dangerous and risk-filled misreading of the events. It is possible that we end up with a more repressive, more aggressive, more publicly evil and dangerous regime, willing to lash out against the West and against Israel to solidify its hold on power or its support in the eyes of extremists. Perhaps. But I think it is just as likely that, regardless of short-term events here, this is the start of a popular revolution, which may result in rapid change or erratic change, but which must be given some air to play itself out. The evil regime appears to have grossly, arrogantly, or witlessly overplayed its hand, creating a narrow opening for real, progressive (though likely painful) change in a once-great nation. And even if the result is a more democratic, but equally anti-America and anti-Israel, regime, that's probably a better thing for us, too. Changing minds and hearts doesn't happen over night, and it doesn't happen at the receiving end of a gun barrel.

There is risk in that, to be sure, and we must do what we must do to protect ourselves and our allies, not insignificantly Israel. But interference by the U.S. or Israel at this point could suffocate a popular uprising, choking the agents of change as they attempt to lurch toward democracy that could redefine Iran and its place in the world. It's too early, I think, to know whether these new revolutionaries need a lifeline or room to breathe. The perception of an American or Israeli boot on the throats of Iranians, or as the oxygen behind the movement, will not win us any allies, but instead would serve to unite Iran against us and delegitimize the forces for change and democracy within Iran, making them appear as puppets of the U.S. rather than as patriots in their own country. We need to be cautious and smart.

How do we know when and if the time to act may come? I'm not sure. But I am sure that Charles Krauthammer doesn't know, either.

UPDATE: Here's what I had to say several months ago regarding Iran - it's people and its totalitarian government - and their varied relationships with Iran's Jewish population.